On the one hand, it’s light and green, paper and gold fans and “one hundred million dollars a day, easy and easy.”
On the other hand, the de facto, manufacturing and industrial workers ‘ incomes have fallen and the cost of living has risen.
Like Japan in the last century, in the 1985-1990s, there was a hot economic boom, and stock and house prices went up so badly that they created a lot of “pigs in the wind.”
Japan was undoubtedly the hottest presence on the planet.
I’m sure you’d like to know how such a good day came, and then what happened? How come the Japanese have become now a low-spirited “damn house”?
After reading this article, you can quickly figure out the issues.
Some scholars referred to the system of international division of labour and the process of economic development in East Asia in the 1980s as a “goose model” and Japan as the lead geese.
In other words, the rise of East Asian countries followed Japan’s trail, which, in a few decades, had seen the emergence of flats, liberal generations, and high housing prices. It would be useful to know what happened in Japan and what would happen in the future.
01
Let’s start with a look at the picture and look at the post-war economic development in Japan in a simple and clear manner:
The focus of this article is on the rise and strangulation of the housing bubble, which has not been of much use to this topic since 1996.
It must be mentioned that after the Second World War, Japan was able to emerge rapidly with the 1940 system.
It is a national system of war-mobilization, which, in short, is able to focus on major issues. The core elements include:
1) Bank-centred indirect financing systems;
2) The pattern of industrial development dominated by the monopoly of large enterprises;
3) Landing on earth.
A point of view was shared by the teacher of the Win Iron Army, who said that, after the Second World War, the countries that succeeded in taking over industrial transfers were largely State-led economic institutions.
Because the early transfer of manufacturing, mostly labour-intensive sweatshops — high labour intensity, low human rights guarantees — cannot be achieved without a strong military system.
This is true for Japan, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan, which the Western theorem interprets as State capitalism.
The opposite is India, where the demographic dividend cannot be realized or industrialized because it is too “bulk” to move infrastructure to cover industrial transfers.
In addition to the 1940 System, Japan’s post-war economy has been booming because:
1) An export-oriented economic development model;
2) A friendly international environment, which takes over manufacturing transfers between Europe and the United States;
3) The comparative advantage of the demographic dividend;
(4) The spirit of the nation, which has suffered.
Does it look familiar? The path to the East Asian Confucian Cultural Circle is a mirage!
The question is, how did Japan make the rise a bubble?
02
At the end of industrialization, overcapacity could lead to overcapitalization.
Excessive industrial capital translates into financial capital.
The instinct of financial capital is to chase assets, create bubbles and rob stock.
In human terms, capital makes money, and once business does not, it turns to stock and house.
Why doesn’t Japan make money when it’s up?
There are many reasons, most notably two:
One is the rising cost of labour and the transfer of some industries to China and Korea;
Two is Japan-US trade friction.
It is better to understand that a society that has grown to a certain level, that the standard of living of the population is gradually rising, that wages (labour prices) will naturally rise and that few people will be willing to remain on the water line again, so that some low-tech, fast-moving industries lose their cost advantage.
The latter was due to the fact that Made in Japan was too aggressive, broke down American factories in bulk, unemployment rose sharply and trade protectionism rose rapidly.
It was not a long story, and the American people did have a bad time, with hail coming out of the house, after being buried alive on the battlefield of Vietnam, and then the gunpowder barrel in the Middle East, causing oil prices to rise.
In the industrial age, energy was the mother of costs, oil prices were raised, and all commodities were raised, and then the United States was plunged into a terrible stagnating crisis.
All those who have learned about the political economy know that in all crises, stagnation is the most troublesome, on the one hand, unemployment is soaring, on the other hand, prices are soaring — ordinary people are not making money and the cost of living is still rising, isn’t that what pushes people to the streets?
Severe inflation, combined with economic decline, is called stagnating.
Why is stagnating the most trouble?
Unlike stagnation and depression, it is not possible to use monetary stimulus to counter-cyclically regulate, at a time when inflation is already high, when prices rise even more when water is released, and the currency becomes “paper” and a serious social crisis.
The solution would be to raise interest rates and contract the currency, but that in turn would exacerbate economic depression and increase unemployment.
The US Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Walker in the early 1980’s managed to contain inflation, get America out of stagnating and win the Cold War, by holding out of pressure from the White House and from the public, and by opening up a staggered interest rate.
How can economic decision-making be both beautiful? His interest rate hike made it even harder to hit a worker’s life in the United States, with unemployment at one point rising to 10 per cent, and widening the spreads between the United States and other countries, looking at arbitrage, and the high level of international capital buying into the United States dollar, which contributed to a sharp appreciation of the dollar.
The appreciation sounds like a rich word, but in fact it pushes up the sale price of United States goods abroad. Examples:
These are the basic conditions in the United States during the period of Japan-United States trade friction: soaring domestic prices, soaring unemployment, rising foreign exchange rates of the United States dollar and difficulties in the export of goods.
Japan, on the other hand, is one of the best places and one of the most prosperous economies.
After all these years of fighting North Korea and Viet Nam, he’s got to worry about the Russians.
So the United States put a hat on Japan’s “unfair trading country” and accused it of stealing America’s high-tech technology. For decades now, that’s the way it’s been.
Japan was now the biggest target of hostility in American society at the time, and the “white man” was widely known to be the Japanese who took their jobs, so he went to the streets and slammed Japanese cars and called for a boycott of Japanese goods.
American capitalists have also taken advantage of this wave of national sentiment, when Carter Pyler, the leading American engineering machine, was being abused by Japan’s small pine production. Arrogant Americans would certainly not look for the quality of their products, but rather for the high exchange rate of the dollar, which led to their being less competitive.
As a result, Carter’s then president Lee Morgan wrote a report saying, “As long as the dollar depreciates by 20 per cent, I can drive a bulldozer to the Japanese Empire. I’m sorry.
And then, the G5 conceived the Plaza Accord that pushed the dollar down and the yen up.
There are still many who believe that the Plaza Accord is a conspiracy and that Japan is not.
The immediate objective of the Plaza Accord was to increase United States exports and reduce its trade deficit.
By devalued the United States dollar, which, as mentioned earlier, is equivalent to a fall in the prices of United States goods on the international market, at a time when other countries can stimulate consumption, would it not be possible for the United States to sell more?
The Japanese are also working in tandem with the initiative to appreciate the yen and then to sacrifice the Prechon Report to stimulate domestic demand, upgrade industrial structures, increase imports, expand liberalization and accelerate financial liberalization.
Why are the Japanese so cooperative?
As the Japanese yen is appreciated, it is also good for Japan:
First, a proper (20 per cent) appreciation of the yen would facilitate the upgrading of the domestic industrial structure, as they were once a large country, with low-priced prices to win, and now international sales prices are going to rise, with increasing pressure to compete and, naturally, more effort in cost control and technological upgrading.
Moreover, Japan was a resource-scarce country, and the appreciation of the yen would reduce the cost of importing raw materials.
Thirdly, Japanese residents are also happy because the yen is appreciated and more money is being paid in the country. You can buy it in a foreign country!
Why is it spoiled?
Because the yen went too far, far beyond control.
The signing of the Plaza Accord is equivalent to the appreciation of the yen. What is the concept?
This is equivalent to a government guarantee of credibility.
Isn’t it a son-of-a-bitch? As a result, there was a massive influx of international capital, and the yen was hurried to rise, well beyond the projected 20 per cent. When the Plaza Accord was signed in 1985, it was about 240 yen to one dollar, and soon it broke 120 yen to one dollar.
The Central Bank of Japan, too, felt that it would not be possible to keep up with the boom, and began to reduce interest rates and release much of its supply to the market.
As can be seen from the figure above, after the 1985 Plaza Accord, the Central Bank of Japan reduced the base rate from 5% to 2.5%.
It’s full, stock and house prices are rising!
In summary, after 1985, the Japanese economy gradually became foaming:
1) The appreciation of the yen, the blocking of exports and the setback of the entity;
2) The Central Bank of Japan has issued excess currency;
3) Lack of investment channels and the fact that real estate is the most readily available target for investment and that prices are skyrocketing under heavy water;
4) The foolishness of humans is growing and buying.
Miyazaki’s parents, who turned into pigs by searching for a thousand gruesome foods, included the greedy Japanese during the bubble.
The rising house prices have changed the Japanese mind.
Before the bubble, Japan had an average annual working time of 2300 hours, and companies had called for “crushing towels” in order to capture efficiency, which meant “extracting the last drop of sweat” and was a wolf, which was an exaggeration.
In the bubble age, these “professionals” found that crazy jobs won’t get half as much as permanent house prices.
The whole Japanese society has an agitated atmosphere in which money is not speculative or stupid.
In addition to the speculative mentality of nationals, banks are also important drivers of bubbles, who buy houses in various ways for their performance: “Even if you can’t afford it now, the bank will give you a sufficiently low down payment and a very long repayment period, and don’t worry that you won’t be able to make a loan during this period because you can sell the house and make a living! I’m sorry.
In the expectation that the money would get hairy and house prices would rise forever, the Japanese at the time simply failed to take the debt seriously, with significant leverage and international hot money, into the stock and building markets.
Meanwhile, the United States remains mired in a double-deficit trade-fiscal deficit, with massive internal unemployment and ongoing demonstrations.
Yet another super-Power — the Soviet Union — has shown itself to be extremely embarrassing in the war against Afghanistan, bringing down the economy.
Turning to Japan, there’s a lot of singing and dancing, a lot of wine and green wine, a lot of cars on the streets, and even civilians play golf…
Japan was born with a “first man in the world” mentality that Tokyo, the future cosmos centre, was scarce and could not be bought at all at the present time, and that the house price was put to heaven.
And then there was the “sold Tokyo to buy the whole United States.”
The chart above is the home of Tokyo’s Silver House, which in 1989 was set at 110 million yen/square metres, $970,000/square, the highest global low ever recorded in Guinness.
At the same time as the high house price, it’s everywhere.
Money came so easily, it cost so much, that the whole world was full of Japanese, just like the Chinese moms are now scrambling the streets.
I’m sure you’d like to know why it’s punctured if it’s so good.
04
First of all, is the bubble age really good?
Some say it’s good. It’s so rich. What else do the Japanese miss?
When we talk about the information cocoon, we say that one thing you hear all the time is a single description, and for a long time you think it’s the whole picture.
On the one hand, the bubble economy is green and green, paper-drunk gold fans and “one-hundred million dollars a day” while on the other hand, it is defunct, the manufacturing sector is depressed, and industrial workers’ incomes are falling and the cost of living is rising.
PS: On Labor Day 1987, 3.9 million people in Japan took to the streets and staged a march against dismissal and pay cuts.
At that time, Japan had the longest working hours in the world, and even its European and American competitors couldn’t watch, saying, “They’re too hard-working, it’s not fair for our business. I’m sorry.
In the latter stages of the bubble, the hard and hard work of the battered workers did not make money, and the first rich were able to make money, not only by setting fire, but also by pushing the cost of living for young people.
There’s a man called Watanabe who accumulates his natural wealth through loans, mortgages, mortgages, repurchases, mortgages and repurchases.
In the documentary, he said, “That was a good time, a good time. I’m sorry.
Isn’t that bullshit? When he lays down to win, he doesn’t know?
But were the Japanese all involved in the big rich game of firehouses?
It is obviously not possible that the rules of the firehouse game are “crush and extract” — the switchboard operator will not only face very high costs, but will also carry great risks.
The first rich make money in the house, and the younger ones only look at it.
The Internet of that time has not yet become universal, and the media has been seen to be “the vested interest”, but it does not mean that there is no “silent majority”.
In fact, this is a common phenomenon, with a big news story in 2020, many of which have studied Iran’s history since media rushes, turning pictures of young people’s reading gatherings during the Balevi dynasty, saying that Iran was better before the revolution.
However, photos of parties buying luxury goods do not depict the very existence of ordinary people, but the daily life of the bourgeois class, as when it comes to the nation, where some people think first of all of the best and forget that it is the people who represent them.
The nation is a good time for big capital, big bureaucrats and masters, but a bad time for countless lands.
So is the bubble age a good time?
I’m afraid it depends on who has it.
The time has given dividends to some at the expense of others.
The Japanese economist Yukio Noguchi wrote:
The increasing number of people who do not work means that society is moving in the wrong direction.
This was the case during the bubble economy of the 1980s. The use of financial technology can generate gains without labour, or the development of the golf course with empty gloves, can build up huge assets, or even make a huge profit by buying and selling art works.
Japan’s rapid post-war economic growth stems from the hard work of the Japanese, and when “working for wealth” is ridiculed, economic development is out of common sense for the simple reason that the resources and wealth of society as a whole have not increased, and that some people are rich overnight means that more people fall into poverty.
Where can we see the bubble age, which is not a good time for young people?
Fertility rate!
The bubbles of 1985-1990 were five years of booming house prices in Japan, while young people in Japan used their actions to get Japan out of the street.
A lot of people in the country think Japan slipped into the “lost 30 years” because of the bubble burst, and the fertility rate was lower.
As can be seen from the above, the decline in the number of new-born people in Japan runs through the entire process of urbanization and housing bubbles.
Moreover, after the bursting of the bubble, Japan’s new-born population experienced a marked slowdown in the slopes. The economy of Japan recovered slowly in 1994, and the number of new entrants fluctuated slightly.
Thus, living conditions are the most important factor influencing young people ‘ s reproductive aspirations.
In the winter of Tao of the Swiss Credit, there’s an article called Population cliff, which says:
The collapse of Japan’s real estate bubble in the 1990’s was due to a number of factors, including the sharp rise in the Japanese yen exchange rate and subsequent central bank policy failures, although the most fundamental causes, in my opinion, were the reversal of the demographic structure, which was rapidly ageing, and the underlying causes of the collapse of Japan’s real estate market.
In other words, it is not the low fertility caused by bubble break-ups, but rather by urbanization and bubbles, which in turn leads to low birth rates.
I said, “The opposition moves.”
The Japanese, who had been known for their hard work, lay flat and became a “bull-up house”;
The Japanese, who used to want to swell, are rapidly declining even their most basic consumer desires.
High housing prices have eliminated the desires of young people and the social vitality of Japan. Record number: YX11YyVykwK
I don’t know.
Keep your eyes on the road.
