What is most worth discussing is the process of stabbing economic bubbles by Japanese policymakers.
It’s a policy dilemma.
How did the Japanese real estate bubble get up?
The bubble economy in Japan was the period of rapid expansion of the virtual economy, represented by the stock market market in the 1985-1990s.
Japan was undoubtedly the hottest presence on the planet.
It’s like spending money, buying stuff, looking for work…
I’m sure you’d like to know how such a good day came, and then what happened? How come the Japanese have become now a low-spirited “damn house”?
This chapter will help you to clear these questions quickly.
Some scholars referred to the system of international division of labour and the process of economic development in East Asia in the 1980s as a “goose model” and Japan as the lead geese.
In other words, the rise of East Asian countries followed Japan’s trail, which, in a few decades, had seen the emergence of flats, liberal generations, and high housing prices. It would be useful to know what happened in Japan and what would happen in the future.
01
Let’s start with a look at the picture and look at the post-war economic development in Japan in a simple and clear manner:
It must be mentioned that after the Second World War, Japan was able to emerge rapidly with the 1940 system.
It is a national system that is mobilized in time of war and, in short, a system that is able to focus on major issues.
The core elements include:
1) Bank-centred indirect financing systems;
2) The pattern of industrial development dominated by the monopoly of large enterprises;
3) Landing on earth.
A point of view was shared by the teacher of the Win Iron Army, who said that, after the Second World War, the countries that succeeded in taking over industrial transfers were largely State-led economic institutions.
Because the early transfer of manufacturing, mostly labour-intensive sweatshops — high labour intensity, low human rights guarantees — cannot be achieved without a strong military system.
This is true for Japan, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan, which the Western theorem interprets as State capitalism.
The opposite is India, which, because of its “bulking”, is unable to build infrastructure, to take over industrial transfers, to achieve the demographic dividend and to fully industrialization.
In addition to the 1940 System, Japan’s post-war economy has been booming because:
1) The export-oriented economy;
2) A friendly international environment, with the first industrial transfer;
3) The comparative advantage of the demographic dividend;
(4) The spirit of the nation, which has suffered.
Does it look familiar?
The path to the East Asian Confucian Cultural Circle is a mirage!
The question is, how did Japan make the rise a bubble?
02
At the end of industrialization, overcapacity could lead to overcapitalization.
Excessive industrial capital translates into financial capital.
The instinct of financial capital is to chase assets, create bubbles and rob stock.
In summary, the reasons why the Japanese economy has gradually become foaming after 1985 are:
1) The appreciation of the yen, the obstruction of exports, the disruption of the real economy and the difficulty of making money from starting a business;
2) Low macroeconomic inflation following the end of the oil crisis, which means that currency is available;
3) The Central Bank of Japan has continued to reduce interest rates and put large amounts of money in place, resulting in soaring prices of financial assets;
4) The foolishness of humans is growing and buying.
The parents of Miyazaki, who turned into pigs by searching for food, included the greedy Japanese during the bubble.
In short, what do you do when banks are out of water and deposit rates are so low that everyone takes a lot of money in their hands, and they don’t make money to invest in business?
Must’ve gone to the house, right?
That’s what the Japanese thought at the time, so we were all happy to blow up the bubble, and a lot of people got rich overnight.
03
Money comes so easily that life becomes too much.
There was a lot of singing and dancing in Japan, and there was a lot of light and wine, and there was a lot of golf courses, and the limo was in the streets.
What do you mean?
And you’re still showing off?
They also show off abroad — the world is full of Japanese.
Businesses are also luxuriant, especially in fast-growing industries like financial estates, and dares to offer six months’ salary advance in order to rob talent and even graduates.
If the bubble is so good, why do you want to pierce it?
04
First of all, is the bubble age really good?
Some say it’s good. It’s so rich. What else do the Japanese miss?
When we talk about the information cocoon, we say that one thing you hear all the time is a single description, and for a long time you think it’s the whole picture.
On the one hand, the bubble economy is green and green, paper-drunk gold fans and “one-hundred million dollars a day” while on the other hand, it is defunct, the manufacturing sector is depressed, and industrial workers’ incomes are falling and the cost of living is rising.
PS: On Labor Day 1987, 3.9 million people in Japan took to the streets and staged a march against dismissal and pay cuts.
At that time, Japan had the longest working hours in the world, and even its European and American competitors couldn’t watch, saying, “They’re too hard-working, it’s not fair for our business. I’m sorry.
In the case of workers who were beaten during the bubble period, they were unable to earn money, and the first rich were able to make a lot of money, not only by fire, but also by pushing the cost of living for young people.
There was a man named Watanabe, who bought a house through a loan, mortgages, mortgages, repurchases, mortgages and repurchases, and accumulated a fortune in the form of white gloves.
Before that, he was simply a charterer in the parking lot.
In the documentary, he said, “That was a good time, a good time. I’m sorry.
Isn’t that bullshit? When he lays down to win, he doesn’t know?
But were the Japanese all involved in the big rich game of firehouses?
It is obviously not possible that the rules of the game of fireworks are that of “squeezing and then making” — the switchboard operator will not only face very high costs, but will also carry great risks.
The first rich make money in the house, and the younger ones only look at it.
The Internet of that time has not yet become universal, and the media has been seen to be “the vested interest”, but it does not mean that there is no “silent majority”.
In fact, this is a common phenomenon, with a big news story in 2020, many of which have studied Iran’s history since media rushes, turning pictures of young people’s reading gatherings during the Balevi dynasty, saying that Iran was better before the revolution.
However, photos of parties buying luxury goods do not depict the very existence of ordinary people, but the day-to-day life of the bourgeois class, as if it were a reference to the people’s country, which some people were thinking of first and foremost, and who simply ignored Zixiang, Zhang Lin, and Zheng Zhui.
The nation is a good time for big capital, big bureaucrats and masters, but a bad time for countless lands.
So is the bubble age a good time?
I’m afraid it depends on who has it.
The time has given dividends to some at the expense of others.
The Japanese economist Yukio Noguchi wrote:
The increasing number of people who do not work means that society is moving in the wrong direction.
This was the case during the bubble economy of the 1980s. The use of financial technology can generate gains without labour, or the development of the golf course with empty gloves, can build up huge assets, or even make a huge profit by buying and selling art works.
Japan’s rapid post-war economic growth stems from the hard work of the Japanese, and when “working for wealth” is ridiculed, economic development is out of common sense for the simple reason that the resources and wealth of society as a whole have not increased, and that some people are rich overnight means that more people fall into poverty.
Where can we see the bubble age, which is not a good time for young people?
Fertility rate!
The bubbles of 1985-1990 were five years of booming house prices in Japan, while young people in Japan used their actions to get Japan out of the street.
A lot of people in the country think Japan slipped into the “lost 30 years” because of the bubble burst, and the fertility rate was lower.
As can be seen from the above, the decline in the number of new-born people in Japan runs through the entire process of urbanization and housing bubbles.
Moreover, after the bursting of the bubble, Japan’s new-born population experienced a marked slowdown in the slopes. The economy of Japan recovered slowly in 1994, and the number of new entrants fluctuated slightly.
Thus, living conditions are the most important factor influencing young people ‘ s reproductive aspirations.
In the winter of Tao of the Swiss Credit, there’s an article called Population cliff, which says:
The collapse of Japan’s real estate bubble in the 1990’s was due to a number of factors, including the sharp rise in the Japanese yen exchange rate and subsequent central bank policy failures, although the most fundamental causes, in my opinion, were the reversal of the demographic structure, which was rapidly ageing, and the underlying causes of the collapse of Japan’s real estate market.
In other words, it is not the low fertility caused by bubble break-ups, but rather by urbanization and bubbles, which in turn leads to low birth rates.
I said, “The opposition moves.”
The Japanese, who had been known for their hard work, lay flat and became a “bull-up house”;
The Japanese, who used to want to swell, are rapidly declining even their most basic consumer desires.
High housing prices have eliminated the desires of young people and the social vitality of Japan.
05
What is most worth discussing is the process of stabbing economic bubbles by Japanese policymakers.
Generally, there are two types of foam break-up: one by drag and the other by jab.
The response is on the policy dilemma of whether to choose long or short pain.
Drag:
It is by administrative means to control the trade in housing products, to recover liquidity slowly in reverse economic cycles and to “de-leverage” softly.
The benefits are manageable;
The downside is that young people are too expensive to live in, and the longer they take, the resulting population crisis.
Poke:
It’s the way Japan used to raise interest, and the leverage just fell.
The benefits are that the child dies early and is born fast into the next cycle;
The downside is easy to name.
The question is, did the Japanese decision-makers deliberately break the foam?
If it’s intentional, what do they think? Why would you do that?
There was a monetary economist named Richard Werner, who wrote a book called Prince of the Japanese yen, which set out a very conspiratorial point: He believed that the Central Bank of Japan had not only punctured the bubble with its own hands, but even the foam itself, which they had deliberately created.
You must say, it’s not a psycho, but Mr. Richard has a very persuasive logic.
The origins of conspiracy theory.
First, the Central Bank of Japan has an urgent desire for reform, and he believes that the “1940 system” has become an obstacle to progress in Japan.
It is easy to understand that in the 1970s, the capitalist world experienced a long stagnating crisis, Keynesian bankruptcy, neo-liberalism became the trend of the world’s domination, and the “big government” became increasingly invisible.
In the mid-1980s, the socialist camp was in crisis, and the “free market” had been elevated to “the end of human history” in the mind, and became irrefutable political right.
PS: In 1988, we also invited the neo-liberal flag-bearer, Friedman, to guide the “price-breaker,” which led to a major inflation that almost caused the urban economy to collapse and was stable in the countryside.
In other words, at the top of Japan at the time, a group of reformers emerged, seeking to reform the “regulated government” to “free-market” system.
Secondly, the contradictions between the central bank and the Government have always been the same.
The Government is concerned that the central bank will remain relaxed in order to stimulate employment and gain popular support.
For example, when Kawajia was in office, he yelled at the Fed every day, thinking it wasn’t loose enough.
The central bank, however, is looking at the long term, hoping for independent decision-making and the preservation of currency stability.
That is to say, the Bank of Japan wants to move away from the control of the province.
Knowledge point: The province of Daechi is one of the best institutions in the post-war Japanese economy, none. It not only regulates Japan’s finances, taxes, but also finances and regulations, which are equivalent to a series of national registers of money, money, money collection and supervision of the relevant departments, such as the Ministry of Finance + the Central Bank + the Banking Supervisory Board + the CSRC. It also shapes and influences decision-making in other sectors by allocating funds and approving provincial annual budget programmes.
In a Tibetan province like this, can you hand over the “money supply and the right to fixed interest”?
The reforms pursued by the Central Bank of Japan are not so much economic restructuring as power restructuring, and that resistance is certainly not the same.
The reform parties and the clean-up of the roads felt the need to launch a crisis that would allow angry citizens to push for change.
So this gorgeous bubble began to lead to its fate of “stabbing.”
The next section is devoted to how Japan’s economic bubble broke.
Case number: YX11mRnRW8o
I don’t know.
Keep your eyes on the road.
